By Dan Cuda
Joe Biden’s 2024 candidacy ended 25 days after American history’s worst Presidential debate (Thursday 6/27). It was a political shipwreck for the Democratic Party. How this happened is an unusually public insight into party dynamics. It all seems so clear in hindsight, but Biden never wanted to leave and the outcome was not inevitable. If this was now Kamala Harris’s first term, Biden’s removal would be depicted as shrewd calculation, and the right would be looking back bitterly. The event is worth reassessing.
The Democratic Party’s social structure, built around Biden’s 2020 victory, cracked like glass that night. Watching MSNBC coverage afterwards is like seeing earthquake survivors stumble from the wreckage of their homes. There were three camps already in the first moments. One group might be called, ‘stay-the-course.’ Its motto, “Joe just had a bad night,” he can beat Trump again. A second group was wait-and-see. Remember, declaring the King has no clothes is never easy. Finally, a third group pushed for change. They did this initially either anonymously or implicitly like David Axelrod opining on debate night, “Father Time is the one opponent you can never beat.” Conclusions appearing this quickly must have been building over months. The change group publicly added some numbers over the coming weeks, but ultimately Joe Biden himself must necessarily be the last domino to fall.
Gaslighting went out with the debacle. Joe’s “bad night” replaced, “never been sharper,” to keep the middle group watching what would happen. But Nancy Pelosi impishly undercut this ploy, asking if Joe’s performance was an episode or a condition. Yet, in that first weekend, Obama opined he’d had a bad debate night himself. Jim Clyburn argued Biden had been overprepared. Some betting markets on Biden’s nomination fell by half during the debate but rebounded in the days afterward. Maybe Joe really could ride this out.
On day nine (Friday 7/5), Biden interviewed with Stephanopoulos, declaring he wouldn’t step down unless commanded by the "Lord Almighty.” “It’s not gonna happen” he whispered, referring to intervention both by God and party insiders. After a second weekend, a Washington Post headline (Tuesday 7/9) could announce, “Biden slows the tide of dissent.”
But intervention did happen. Overall party prospects began to supersede appeals of unity and loyalty from Biden‘s “stay-the-course” group. Obama whispered through Clooney’s NY Times Op-ed (Wednesday 7/10). But the domino path to Biden likely wouldn’t be through Obama. Anyone that saw Obama humiliate Biden at a 2022 White House visit – whether out of habit, or just without self-awareness – knew Biden’s domino would resist a push by Obama. Re-enter Nancy Pelosi the same day. With the political skill of a Medici queen, Pelosi signaled she wouldn’t take Biden’s ‘no’ for an answer. “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”
But Pelosi was not the one to bring change. It was Schumer. Schumer quietly met his old Senatorial colleague in Delaware (Saturday July 13), the same day Donald Trump was shot. Attention instantly left Biden, the media air sucked out of the room. Schumer discreetly brought an internal Senate whip count to its old member. Schumer’s effective message was: “Your resolve is taking us down with you. You’ve got to let go!” Schumer finally seemed to get through to Biden.
But it was still eight more days before Biden announced. Biden promised progressives to neuter the Supreme Court. He gaffed up a speech in Las Vegas (Tuesday 7/16), where he caught COVID and returned to Delaware seclusion. The Schumer meeting conveniently became public the next day. He finally announced his decision (Sunday July 21), perhaps calculated for the end of the Republican convention and the weekend news cycle. In the end, Biden’s god appeared to be the Democratic Party, and its prophet was Chuck Schumer. In stepping down he cited the interests of “my party and my country…” in that order. Even now, a small rump group of “stay-the-course” still believes Biden could have beat Trump. They are just one of the bruised Democratic Party factions both nationally and within Maryland that are working now to recalibrate and reassemble for 2026 and beyond.
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Dan Cuda is a former candidate for County Council (District 2) and current member of the Montgomery County Republican Central Committee.